09 Good Stuff!

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IN THIS ISSUE

The Recession is over!… Really?

What A Rally… How Long Can It Last?

Solving the Timing Mystery

Video of the Week… You Gotta See This!

The Saturday Training Session.

Stats From The Research Lab

Hey!

Did you notice? The Recession is over! WOW… I thought it was going to be much worse. Boy, I sure am glad we don’t have to worry about that anymore.

It’s pretty obvious that the recession is over. I mean it’s not like we are buying our own debt or anything.

Everyone knows that jobs will be the last thing to recover and as people now start to fall off of the end of unemployment the figures are “stabilizing”.

Of course I am kidding and I for one can’t believe how far the market has come off a little good news and some alleged “green shoots”.

It seems to me there will be no recovery until the consumer comes back to life and I don’t see any signs of that. For a full look at 4 main reasons why the economy is still a mess go to this link and read the page.

One of the main points is that if you think sub-prime was bad… just wait for the Option ARM Resets. In the chart below, look closely at where we are right now, then look at the mountain of resets coming in the immediate future.

Add to this the massive losses coming in commercial real estate and you have a whole new TRUCKLOAD of bad debt.

When you consider that most commercial real estate loans are being made by regional and community banks… Well, let’s just say that this WAS one banking sector that was not hurt too bad.. so far.

People really need to see the bigger picture and plan accordingly.

Now let’s take a look at the rally and speculate how far it might go. There is about 4 TRILLION dollars on the sidelines in CA$H. Mostly in hedge funds and this money will need to find a place to “go to work”.

Could pouring this kind of money into the stock market make the rally continue?… could be… Let’s look at some trend lines.

The main downward sloping trend comes all the way from the all time high on the S&P. The trend line coming up from the March lows shows just how far we have come.

Should the market (in the longer term) respect that rising trend line going forward it seems that something will have to give when the two trend lines collide at the end on November.

Looking at these long term charts suggest the rally could go as high as 1100 on the S&P and then one of these two trend lines will break. Should the longer term downward trend win out (most likely) then we must look to see how far down the market can go.

In the chart below, we see a support line going all the way back to the depression and should the markets roll over again when it hits the big downward trend, this chart would seem to show VERY strong support at somewhere between 600 and 500 on the S&P.

So there you have it. Should the currents trends hold, we could see the S&P go as high as 1100 between now and November and then we could be in for round two of MAJOR losses back down to the 500-600 level.

Do not let all the main stream media convince you that the recession is over. I am pretty sure it’s not.

My good friends at Weiss Research recently have put a lot of work into analyzing market cycles and timing. The Recent Video shows some of the incredible returns one could have made while using these cycles over the past years. I suggest everyone take a look… Its very interesting.

Video of the week…

Global currency? The IMF is creating their own bonds and using them to trade globally at a level above the regular currencies. Max Keiser talks to Stacy Herbert about the IMF new currency and it’s alleged gold reserves.

The Saturday training session from the Swing Trading Club starts at 11am Eastern Time and this week will features a look at the watch list in the Recovery Portfolio as well as day trading off the daily highs and lows.

To get into the training session, click here and use your first name and last initial, the password is TRADING.

Finally, we are taking a peek at the stats from the trade plans in the Research Lab. We have been doing pretty well in there and the bad news is that the Research Lab is almost sold out again.

So far this month there have been 12 trades, 4 got stopped out on a huge surprise down day and all 8 of the other trades hit targets 1-2 and 3.

The Investing Systems Research Lab features fully laid out trade plans, the Real-Time ETF dashboard and 5 lists of stock picks each day. The Research lab membership is $99.00 per month and will likely sell out in the next few days.

Then we’ll likely start rolling out Research Lab 3.0 and adding even more tools for traders.

That is all for this week folks… Be sure to watch the Market Toolbox LIVE every Sunday Night at 8pm Eastern at www.MarketToolbox.TV.

If you have not done so already…

Download the Desktop Toolbox Today &

Become A Member of The Research Lab

Until Next Time…

Best Wishes and Good Investing,
Bill McKinley & Doug Newberry

The Investing Systems Network

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